This is just too weird. The Pentagon is apparently looking to create a "Policy Analysis Market," where traders can buy futures on specific events. Here's the first paragraph of the story from Bloomberg:
The U.S. military plans a worldwide on-line futures market to help it predict events in the Middle East. Traders could bet on the likelihood of events ranging from the overthrow of a government to the collapse of an economy or the assassination of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.
Some in Congress are saying that this is morally wrong. I don't know about that (if it's not morally wrong to have a policy of assassination, which is essentially what we have towards the Hussein family, and what Israel practices in a more general sense without anyone complaining, then why would it be morally wrong to bet on it?), but it does strike me as, well...whacked. I'm guessing that what the Pentagon folks are hoping is that they'll gain some insight into events by attaching a nice number and a direction to them. It's as if they'll look at the market & say, "Oh, look-- "Overthrow of the Saudi Government" is up 5.25 today. Better call the Marines."
Posted by Jason at July 28, 2003 04:44 PM