With respect to al-Sistani arriving in Najaf to save the shrine, etc. Juan Cole says this:
I think the big losers from the Najaf episode (part deux) are the Americans. They have become, if it is possible, even more unpopular in Iraq than they were last spring after Abu Ghuraib, Fallujah and Najaf Part 1. The US is perceived as culturally insensitive for its actions in the holy city of Najaf.The Allawi government is also a big loser. Instead of looking decisive, as they had hoped, they ended up looking like the lackeys of neo-imperialists.
The big winner is Sistani, whose religious charisma has now been enhanced by solid nationalist credentials. He is a national hero for saving Najaf.
For Muqtada, it is a wash. He did not have Najaf until April, anyway, and can easily survive not having it. His movement in the slums of the southern cities is intact, even if its paramilitary has been weakened.
Then just now I read this from Bob Dreyfuss, who points out the Sistani arrived in Najaf under British escort:
Sistani supposedly is doing all this as an independent force, but if you believe that, I have a mosque in Najaf to sell you. He is effectively an Anglo-American agent now, which is what he and his ilk have been since the 1990s. And in the case of England, they’ve been British stooges since the 1790s. But as always, they are unreliable pawns. The paradox of Sistani, the Catch-22, is that if he is able to deliver, then he will deliver an Iraq which will be gripped in the benighted stupidity of Islamic fundamentalism—not like Iran’s, but equally awful, and just as likely to engage in a jihad against nationalism and the left. But, if he is not able to deliver, than more militant Islamic forces will emerge to displace him, or kill him.
So America's a loser in this because they assaulted a holy city for days, pissing off the country (not to mention the Islamic world in general) and not getting anything out of the effort. Except that they're a winner because Sistani is actually in their corner. But wait, they're still the big loser because if Sistani were to get his way we'll have another fundamentalist state in the Middle East. Of course, if Sistani is not successful in calming things down, someone more radical will charge into his place. Ow ow ow my head...
Posted by Jason at August 27, 2004 02:05 PM